Shanghai and tin continue to pull up quickly to break through the 320000 yuan mark [agency review]

Yesterday, Shanghai and tin continued to pull up rapidly, breaking through the 320000 yuan mark and setting another record high of 328640 yuan / ton. The logic of the recent sustained rise in tin prices is that low inventories give funds the opportunity to continue to do long, under the tight spot, the expected increase in supply before the year can not be fulfilled, so prices can continue to rise.

Fundamentals, tin is the best variety of fundamentals in the non-ferrous plate. From the supply side, the shortage of mining resources is still the main contradiction. China's tin ore supply has been very high overseas. On the one hand, due to the low operating rate of the epidemic, on the other hand, the transportation link has also been affected to a certain extent, so it is difficult to alleviate in a short time. In addition, with the Spring Festival approaching, the operating rate has declined, and the supply is limited.

At present, only two smelters hold inventory, and some large factories also cover the situation that the goods are not available, which also leads to a tight supply of goods in the overall market. On the demand side, it is also the state of rigid demand to purchase replenishment on demand. At present, the high tin price has had an impact on the costs of some downstream enterprises, so once the price falls, it may lead to downstream pick-up, thus supporting the tin price.

Looking forward to the market in the week before this year, tin will remain relatively strong, at least a "hard to fall" market, but the upper space is not too wide, and some funds will also leave the market at a high level before the festival. And during the Spring Festival holiday, it is easy to get tired, and the wait-and-see mood of funds will become stronger.

The supply side is still expected to increase throughout the year. Stimulated by high prices, the supply of mines and ingots will continue to recover after external disturbances abate in the new year. The supply of tin ore in Indonesia and Malaysia has been restored one after another. At present, we believe that the price of tin is already at an absolutely high level, so investors are advised to enter the market cautiously.

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